EB-1 and NIW Approval Rates: Why Experienced Attorneys Are Still Winning Cases

If you have been following the news, you already sense what we are about to tell you. The U.S. immigration landscape has shifted, and the numbers confirm what attorneys across the country are seeing every day. Approval rates have fallen across nearly every employment-based category. Requests for Evidence are landing more often. Notices of Intent to Deny and first-time denials are up. This is not happening to one firm or one kind of case. It is happening nationwide.

So let us tell you the part the headlines leave out.

Despite the pushback, despite the RFEs, the NOIDs, and the denials, experienced attorneys are still winning cases for their clients. Not occasionally. Every single day. Some of those wins are straight approvals. Some come after we answer an RFE. Some come after a denial, when we refile and fight again. The outcome that matters does not change: our clients get their green cards, because we simply do not give up until they do.

That is the real story. Now let us show you why.

The Numbers: A Three-Year Story

To understand the moment, it helps to see the trend rather than a single snapshot. The figures below come from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and reputable case-tracking sources, covering the last few fiscal years through the most recent reporting period.

Read across those rows and the story becomes clear. The EB-2 NIW once approved better than nine in ten petitions. Within three years that fell to the low forties. The EB-1A, long considered the gold standard, has slid from roughly three in four approvals down toward one in two. This is not a small dip. It is a structural shift, and it deserves an honest explanation.

Why This Is Happening, and Why It Is Not About You

Here is the most important thing we can tell you: this decline does not reflect a drop in the quality of applicants. The caliber of the people we represent has not fallen. The gate has simply narrowed. A few forces are driving that.

First, sheer volume. NIW filings nearly tripled in two years, climbing from around 22,000 to more than 63,000 annually. When a category floods like that, USCIS responds by raising the bar to thin the field. The same petition that would have been approved comfortably in 2022 now faces a far harsher reading, not because it got weaker, but because the standard moved.

Second, a tougher interpretation of the rules. Officers are now placing heavy weight on measurable, already-demonstrated impact and far less on future potential or broad influence in a field. Strong candidates whose best work is still ahead of them are being asked to prove, today, what they will contribute tomorrow.

Third, and most significantly, the way cases are reviewed has fundamentally changed. Many of the RFEs, NOIDs, and denials we are now seeing have little to do with the quality of the case itself. Something else is driving them, and it is important enough that we explain it in full below.

That last point is exactly why the attorney you choose has never mattered more.

Why Experience Wins

In a generous adjudication climate, the gap between an average petition and an expertly built one was often invisible, because both got approved. That era is over. Today the margin for error has narrowed to almost nothing, and this is precisely where experience becomes the deciding factor.

Experienced attorneys know how today’s officers read a final merits determination. They know how to frame a proposed endeavor so it survives the tighter national interest scrutiny. They know how to corroborate every claimed criterion with independent, verifiable evidence. They know how to present a file so clearly that no reviewer, however rushed, can miss the proof. And they know how to answer a challenge so forcefully that it closes the door on a denial. These are not skills acquired overnight. They are earned over years, case after case, through every shift in policy.

We have been building EB-1 cases for over 22 years. We have practiced through multiple administrations, watched the standards tighten and loosen and tighten again, and refined our approach with every cycle. That depth is not a line on a website. It is the difference between a petition that hopes to be approved and one that is built to be approved.

It is also why our results do not look like the national averages. Those averages include thousands of self-prepared filings and rushed submissions that were never built to withstand scrutiny. Strip those out, look only at cases prepared and defended by experienced counsel, and the picture changes dramatically. Strong cases, built correctly, are still being approved, every single day.

An RFE Is Not the End. A NOID Is Not the End. Even a Denial Is Not the End.

We need you to hear this clearly, because fear thrives on misunderstanding. And one of the biggest misunderstandings right now is the assumption that a challenge from USCIS means something was wrong with your case. Increasingly, that is simply not true.

As was openly discussed at the recent American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) convention that just wrapped in San Diego, the role of artificial intelligence in case evaluation has become a serious topic of concern among practitioners. This matters enormously, and it helps explain a pattern that has been frustrating attorneys and applicants alike.

When cases are scanned and processed with the help of automated tools, the evidence does not always come through correctly. Sometimes exhibits are missed entirely. Sometimes documents are misread. Sometimes the system fails to connect a piece of evidence to the argument it was meant to support. The result is that a growing number of RFEs and NOIDs simply do not make sense when you read them against the petition that was actually filed. They ask for things that were already provided. They raise concerns the evidence already answered. They overlook the very proof sitting in the file.

This is the heart of the problem. Artificial intelligence has its place, and it can be a powerful tool. But judgment is not one of its strengths. AI cannot weigh a career the way a seasoned adjudicator can. It cannot read context, infer significance, or understand why a particular achievement matters in a particular field. It cannot exercise the kind of discretion that an experienced USCIS officer, or an experienced immigration attorney, brings to a complex case. When nuanced, high-stakes decisions are influenced by a system that cannot truly evaluate them, mistakes follow. And those mistakes land on real people with real futures at stake.

So let us be clear about what these notices actually mean in this environment.

A Request for Evidence does not mean your case is failing. Often it means the review did not properly capture or interpret what was already there. It means USCIS wants more, or wants it presented differently, and more is something we know how to deliver. When an RFE arrives, we do not panic. We diagnose exactly what went wrong, we identify what the reviewer missed or misread, and we answer it harder, clearer, and more pointedly than it was asked. We make the evidence impossible to overlook a second time.

A Notice of Intent to Deny is not a denial. It is an opening. It is a chance to respond, to correct the record, to address every concern directly, and to dismantle the reasoning point by point, especially when that reasoning rests on something that was misread or overlooked. We have turned many of these around, precisely because we know how to expose the gap between what was filed and what was understood.

And even a denial is not the final word. Time and again we have moved a case from no to approved, refiling and fighting until the outcome is right. A denial in this climate is frequently a reviewable, reversible event, not a verdict on your worth or your eligibility. We do not stop, because to us this was never about a form or a percentage. It is personal.

This is also exactly why holding your nerve matters more now than at any point we can remember. The instinct, when a confusing or unfair notice arrives, is to fear the worst. Do not. The terrain has become more complicated, but complication is not the same as defeat. What it demands is steady hands and deep experience, the ability to look at a notice that makes no sense and know immediately why it does not, and then to fix it. That is what we do. Let our experienced attorneys navigate this terrain for you, because this is precisely the kind of environment where experience is not a luxury. It is the difference between a setback and a green card.

You did not come this far to have your future decided by a backlog, a staffing shortage, a software limitation, or a policy that may change again next year. You earned your place through years of work, achievement, and contribution. The American Dream you are reaching for is not a favor granted on a bureaucratic whim, and it certainly should not be denied by a system that could not read your file properly. It is something you have every right to pursue, and our job is to make sure the process honors that right rather than denying it on a technicality.

We Have Got This. And So Do You.

Times are hard. We will not pretend otherwise, and we respect you too much to sugarcoat it. But difficulty is not defeat. The same persistence that brought you to this country, the same determination that built your career and your case, is the persistence that wins. Paired with the right experience in your corner, it is a combination that still succeeds, every single day.

Whatever letter shows up in your mailbox, an approval, a request, a notice, or a denial, know this: experienced attorneys will not let it be the end of your story. We have got this. And so do you.

If you are ready to build your case the right way, or to fight a decision you have already received, we are here.